12월 1일로 예정된 FED의 QT는 주가 상승을 견인할까?

Good Morning, Briefers! The Fed is making a small move that could have a big impact on your portfolio.

For the past few years, the Fed has been shrinking its giant pile of bonds - basically pulling money out of the financial system to fight inflation. 

That process is called “QT,” or quantitative tightening.

And now? They’re done.

On December 1st (tomorrow), the Fed is officially stopping QT and letting the system breathe again.

It won’t grab headlines like rate cuts, but this shift can impact mortgage rates, borrowing costs and how much “easy money” is in the economy.

Today we’re breaking down what that means - in plain English.

Photo via PBS

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THE BASICS

Why Ending QT Matters

QT cut down the large pile of bonds the Fed bought during the pandemic-era stimulus.

Basically - the Fed injected a bunch of money to prop up the economy during COVID, and then it had to undo that.

As bonds matured, the Fed simply didn’t buy new ones. 

That slowly drained cash out of banks and money markets - which helped push up interest rates.

But now that’s ending, from December 1 onward, the outsized drain on liquidity stops. That means:

• Bank reserves should stop shrinking - fewer cash-flow squeeze risks for lenders. 
  
  

• Short-term funding costs (yields, borrowing for banks) may ease. 
  
  

• Long-term interest-rate pressure may ease too — because the flow of new Treasuries into markets will slow. 

TLDR: The Fed has stopped removing cash from the system.

That tends to make money cheaper and easier to borrow - for banks, businesses, and you.

THE IMPACTS

What Markets & Consumers Might Feel

Here’s how the end of QT could ripple out:

Rates on mortgages and loans could drift lower: Less pressure from the Fed’s balance-sheet drain might lower yields.

Stocks and credit markets could get a boost: With more liquidity and lower yields, investors often flow into stocks.

The last time the Fed stopped a QT program was in September 2019 and the market made new all-time highs before the COVID crash.

Liquidity risk in money markets falls: Fewer surprises for money-market funds and short-term lenders. 

• That reduces the chance of sudden spikes in borrowing costs or market stress. 

For everyday people: Cheaper financing on houses, cars, or loans could make big purchases more attractive again.

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THE DECISION

Why the Fed Called It Quits on QT

Ending QT wasn’t random. There are a few big red flags that pushed the Fed’s hand:

• Bank reserves and liquidity buffers had dropped to levels that made money markets nervous. Further QT risked another funding squeeze.
  
  

• Short-term borrowing costs had diverged above the Fed’s target range - a sign that liquidity was tighter than ideal. 
  
  

• Reserves had fallen to a point where the “ample reserves” regime was at risk. 

Put simply: The drain had done its job. Now the cost to financial stability was too high, and they pressed pause.

BRIEF BREAK

Big Numbers

Since mid-2022, the Fed has shed more than $2 trillion in assets (Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities). 

Now that unwind stops - that’s a lot of liquidity flushed back into the system.

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WRAP UP

What It Means For You

The Fed ending QT doesn’t guarantee low rates or booming markets, but it removes a big headwind.

If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for better loan rates, this could be your window.

If you’re invested - greater liquidity, calmer funding markets and lower yields could push money back into risk assets.

And for the economy overall: Less financial strain, more breathing room.

The Fed isn’t printing money again - at least not yet.

But by stopping the drain, they’re giving the system a chance to fill up again.