연준의 금리인하에도 AI관련주 상당수 하락 / 계속되는 오라클발 AI 거품론 / 오라클의 엄청난 부채

  https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KfdhZwQGKdo 

Why are tech related stocks dropping despite the fed’s rate cut yesterday thereby pouring in liquidity? 

That's a great question, as typically a Federal Reserve rate cut and a liquidity injection are seen as bullish signals, especially for growth-oriented sectors like tech.

Based on the latest market activity, here are the likely reasons why tech-related stocks are dropping despite the Fed's actions:

1. Concerns Over AI Investment Payoff (The Oracle Effect)

• Company-Specific Earnings: A major factor cited in the recent tech decline was the earnings report from Oracle, a bellwether for AI and cloud infrastructure spending.

• CapEx Fears: Oracle's report showed weaker-than-expected cloud revenue and, crucially, a significant increase in its capital expenditure (CapEx) outlook (raising it by $15 billion to a total of $50 billion for data centers). This announcement raised fears that the massive investments required for AI infrastructure might not be paying off fast enough or could weigh heavily on future corporate profitability, especially if funded by debt.

• Broad Tech Sentiment: This spooked investors across the tech sector, reigniting concerns about the valuation of AI-heavy stocks like Nvidia, which had been driving the market.

2. Mixed Signals from the Federal Reserve

• Split Decision: While the Fed cut rates, the decision was divided, with some officials dissenting. This highlights internal uncertainty about the future direction of policy.

• Hawkish Dot Plot: Despite the rate cut, the Fed's "dot plot" (projection of future rate moves) signaled only one more cutin the following year. This was considered "hawkish" (less dovish/aggressive than hoped) by some investors who were anticipating a faster pace of rate reductions. The rate cut itself may have been largely anticipated, but the outlook for 2026 was less accommodating than expected.

• Liquidity vs. Policy: The $40 billion in Treasury purchases announced was largely characterized as a liquidity management measure to ease year-end funding pressures, not a return to full-scale Quantitative Easing (QE) to fundamentally drive down rates further, which may have tempered enthusiasm.

3. Rotation and Valuation Concerns

• Shift from Big Tech: The recent rally was heavily dominated by a few large tech companies ("Magnificent Seven").Analysts are noting a potential shift in market leadership, with the S&P 500's equal-weighted index starting to outperform its market cap-weightedcounterpart. This suggests investors are rotating money out of the mega-cap tech stocks and into other sectors like materials, industrials, or financials, which may benefit more directly from a stable or improving economy at current interest rates.

• High Valuations: Even with a rate cut, tech stock valuations remain historically high. Any news suggesting a slowdown in growth or a significant increase in costs (like high AI CapEx) can trigger a sharp sell-off as investors take profits and question those elevated valuations.

In summary, while the Fed's cut and liquidity injection provided a general boost to the stock market, the tech sector was specifically hit by company-specific negative news (Oracle's CapEx/revenue miss) that fueled pre-existing fears about AI investment returnsand high valuations, ultimately overpowering the broad positive effect of the Fed's monetary policy action.

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Would you like me to find out how specific tech stocks like Nvidia or Oracle reacted to the news in more detail?