정역의 김일부, 증산교의 강증산, 그리고 한국 불교 최고의 학승이었던 탄허는 북극해가 녹는 시점을 후천개벽의 시발점으로 보았다; 헌데, 최근 연구들에 따르면, 빠르면 2027년부터 늦으면 2050년에 북극이 완전히 녹는다; 과연 그 즈음, 인류의 미래는 어떻게 될 것인가?; 일본 만화 '내가 본 미래'(私が見た未來―ほんとにあった怖い話コミックス) 작가가 예측한 대재난은 금년 7월

 

2027년설

https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20241203108600017

지구 온난화로 북극해 얼음(해빙)이 실질적으로 모두 녹는 첫 번째 얼음 없는 날이 2030년대에 발생할 것이라는 기존 전망보다 훨씬 이른 2027년에 올 수 있다는 경고가 나왔다.

 

2030년설

https://www.ynetnews.com/environment/article/skagwwgbjl

Earlier projections of Arctic sea-ice loss primarily aimed to estimate when the region would become ice-free for an entire month. Current models predict that this could occur by 2030, or possibly earlier. "Since the first ice-free day is projected to precede the first ice-free month, it is critical to prepare for this inevitability, particularly by understanding the exact meteorological and climatic events that could drive the complete loss of Arctic sea ice," Dr. Heuzé explained.   

https://m.news.nate.com/view/20230607n39826?mid=m00

[날씨] 10년 빨라진 북극 해빙 소멸…"2030년 9월 사라져"

 

2035년설

https://www.bas.ac.uk/media-post/past-evidence-supports-complete-loss-of-arctic-sea-ice-by-2035/

Past evidence supports complete loss of Arctic sea-ice by 2035

 

 

 

 https://www.quora.com/What-would-be-the-consequences-of-the-complete-melting-of-Arctic-Sea-Ice-Can-Earth-recover-from-it-or-would-there-be-lasting-damage-to-our-planet

Not much.

As the Arctic has no landmass the melting at the north pole wouldn’t make much difference. A simple experiment will demonstrate this: fill a glass with ice cubes and let them melt.

Not much changes between the ice and its molten state. Depending on how tightly you pack the ice, you might even end up with a lower level of water than ice. After all, ice is just frozen water and that’s the case in the Arctic.

But watch out for Greenland and Antarctica.

Here we deal with glaciers, ice, and snow sitting on a landmass. When these thaw and melt you are really adding water to the oceans.

How much?

Scientific estimates are that all the glaciers on Greenland would release enough water to cause the ocean levels to rise by 7.5 meters.

Credit: NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center

However, this is only about 1/10 of the water that would be added to the oceans if all the ice sheets, etc on Antarctica were to melt. Keep in mind that the landmass of Antarctica is 14 million square km, just 3 million less than all of Russia (17 million), and almost 7 times greater than that of Greenland (2.2 million).

Antarctica As Seen From Space. Credit: NASA

The ice sheet on Antarctica is over 2 km thick in most places and holds enough frozen water that, if released, would result in a sea-level rise of about 58 meters. Combine that with the volume from Greenland and the oceans would swell to about 65 meters above current levels (some estimates are as high as 68 meters).

Then it’s time to move to higher grounds, this is approximately much of Earth would be underwater after a total ice melt, with Africa and Australia least affectedt:

Gif credit: Camilo Rada

Note that to this projection one would also have to add any rise in ocean temperature. Water expands as it warms up so depending on how hot it gets the sea level could rise even higher.

 

 

What is happening as a consequence of this melting is the acceleration of climate change.

Can we save the Arctic Ice Cap, and should we?

Yes, we can, if we act now, and we must.

To accomplish this, we must dam the ice flow at the head of Fram Strait, which will restore the Ice Cap within a few years if we act while there is still a significant ice flow.

Otherwise, predictions that we have time to plant and mature three trillion trees to reverse global warming will meet the reality of further acceleration of warming from consequent runaway warming from permafrost melt and from consequent stalled ocean currents.

Here is how to construct the Fram dam to quickly restore the Ice Cap:

Immediately below you see two images of the condition of the Ice Cap in 2019. The first shows the annual maximum extent of the ice for all of 2019, recorded in March.

The second image, immediately below, illustrates the summer melt conditions showing the ice extent on June 11, 2019, in the Spring, just three months later, which was a record low for that particular date.

And below is a stunning, short, time-lapse video from NASA showing three decades of ice loss in the Arctic:

The continuous and huge ice loss shown in this video, illustrates ice lost flowing down the east coast of Greenland. This is ice flowing south in the winter on the cold winter current of the Fram Strait. The winter is when cold temperatures build the ice, and most of the ice surface loss visible in the June 11th satellite photo (immediately above the video) is seen being lost down the Fram Strait. Over the summer, the remaining ice contracts in the ever-increasing summer heat, and the flow south then slows and pauses around the Fall Equinox.

Clearly, the Ice Cap will quickly be gone if EITHER the shrinkage of ice in the summer heat OR the winter flow of ice southward is not substantially reduced — or both.

It’s too late to save the Ice Cap by reducing greenhouse gases to cool the atmosphere and reverse summer ice melt, because even if all greenhouse gas emissions resulting from energy and agricultural production were slashed to the max that can be accomplished quickly, the atmosphere and ocean temperatures would need at least decades to return to pre-industrial conditions. And by then, the Ice Cap would be gone, stalling ocean currents to catastrophically disrupt global climate and weather, and the Arctic permafrost would inevitably melt and release centuries of stored carbon as methane and carbon dioxide, accelerating atmospheric warming.

But we can dam the winter surface ice flow and restore the Ice Cap quickly, if we act now, while there is still ice to block.

The ice flow squeezes around the northeast jut of Greenland to enter the southward current. In the perspective of the June 11th satellite pic, above, that jut is the top-most point of Greenland. It is at this location that we can secure ice to the land and to the shallow shelf there, by anchoring cables, and build the core of an ice dam that will then begin to block the ice flow and begin to extend the dam largely by itself across the current, and restore the surface of the Ice Cap entirely within a few years.

Here are four images showing how this can be accomplished:

(1) This first image depicts the surface currents with grey arrows and the intermediate depth currents with black arrows.

Note that just north of Greenland we see the (grey) surface currents that move the ice flow immediately adjacent to the shore, while the (black) intermediate depth currents beneath the ice curve north around the shallow shelf.

(2) In the second image, immediately below, we see the depth and coordinates of this shallow shelf, over which the surface currents pass: at around 83-86 degrees north, and from about 30 to 10 degrees west, with a depth ranging up to a few hundred meters.

International Bathymetric Chart (above)

This is the shallow shelf running northeast from the shore of Greenland on which a network of cables across the surface can be anchored (e.g. beginning at the coastline and then attached to sunken containers along the ridge) to robustly dam the ice flowing on the surface current without disrupting the deeper ocean currents.

(3) The third image, below, is a detail from the chart above. You see the 1500 meter deep pass at the upper left of the chart below, through which the ice flows east, and is then pulled southwest and southeast by shallow currents around the western and eastern shores of Greenland. The southwest channel is too shallow, so the ice jams against the shore of Greenland that is shown at the bottom, and then moves east along the shore, over the Lincoln Shelf, to pass over the Morris Jesup Rise and into the Fram Strait. On the shoreline, at 30 degrees west, at bottom center of the chart image below, we could begin the dam, using the land to hold the ice and helping it to build out to the north-northeast, to about 20 degrees west, 85 degrees north, directly over the Rise, about 150 kilometers from shore.

Detail of proposed dam area, from International Bathymetric Chart (above)

(4) The fourth image, below, graphs the drift-speed of the ice, showing that the velocity of ice flow falls to about 200 meters per hour down the Fram Strait during the summer months. This is when the ice flow is now thinnest and easiest to navigate. And the ice flow can be seen in the NASA video (above) to pause during the entire summer (since 1988) over the shallow shelf, with the ice flow thinnest and easiest to dam in that location during the summer.

Although ice jams occur quickly, and simply, this will nevertheless be among the largest intentional feats of human engineering ever attempted, yet dwarfed by the unintentional geoengineering from greenhouse gas emissions that it will counter.

The key consequence of this increasing loss of the Ice Cap is a vicious positive feedback loop of warming. The main element of this vicious loop is shown in a second NASA video, immediately below, because the sunlight that was reflected by the ice is instead absorbed by the ocean, which continuously accelerates warming and ice loss.

This feedback loop of warming is further amplified by the darker, exposed Arctic land mass and by release of methane and carbon dioxide due to melting permafrost on land and below the warming water, as discussed at this link from February, 2020: The Arctic is having holes stabbed through it at an alarming rate.

Damming the flow of surface ice over the shallow shelf will not slow the intermediate depth ocean currents in the Fram Strait that flow to the north of the Rise, so ocean currents will not be negatively affected, but it will restore the reflectivity (albedo) provided by the ice, thus cooling the atmosphere, the land, and the ocean, and reversing the vicious feedback loop of sunlight warming the Ocean and accelerating ice loss. This restoration of the Arctic Ice Cap and reversal of warming of the Ocean and melting of permafrost will halt and reverse runaway global warming, giving us the time we need to restore two billion hectares of depleted lands (which agroforestry and management of all forests can be funded via Reconomy without taking money from any other needs), doubling the number of trees on Earth to six trillion by mid century, and managing all forests sustainably, to permanently sequester enough carbon to restore pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 and pre-industrial climate by the end of this century, aided by our permanently increased ability to regulate the total amount of ice in the Arctic Ice Cap to affect Arctic and global climate.

There is now only a small window of opportunity remaining to begin this project because the rate of this vicious positive feedback loop of warming is AGAIN ACCELERATED by a new source: plumes of dark smoke particles from forest fires deposited across the Arctic ice:

Baked by midsummer sun, Arctic sea ice could face worst losses on record » Yale Climate Connections

The darkened ice absorbs more sunlight, thus accelerating rate of melt. If we want to save the Arctic Ice Cap, then our last opportunity may be now.

~~~

Q. What else can people do to help?
A. Share this post, and share your ideas here as comments.

Additional resources:

How can we pay 100 million people to restore the Earth over the next 30 years without diverting economic resources from other needs:
How can we accomplish sustainable prosperity for everyone?

Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene, PNAS (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences) August 14, 2018 (https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252):
“We suggest 2°C above preindustrial temperatures could activate important tipping elements”

World Resources Institute, September 17, 2018 (This Month in Climate Science, August 2018: Runaway Warming, Marine Heat Waves and Foods Get Less Nutritious):
"Hothouse Earth" runaway warming: Writing in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, scientists suggest that we are unleashing self-reinforcing warming feedbacks that could create a "Hothouse Earth" effect, where warming continues even if emissions are eventually reduced. The scientists assessed feedback processes such as the die-off of boreal forests, Arctic sea ice loss and the release of methane from permafrost.

“The Arctic’s ticking ‘carbon bomb’ could blow up the Paris Agreement” (The Arctic’s ticking ‘carbon bomb’ could blow up the Paris Agreement), By Kate Yoder, Mar 13, 2019 :

“Even in a dream-come-true scenario where we manage to stop all the world’s carbon emissions overnight, the Arctic would inevitably get hotter and hotter….The Arctic contains much of the world’s permafrost, which holds what the report calls a “sleeping giant” made of greenhouse gases…Estimates vary, but the report says 1.5 trillion tons of carbon dioxide lurk beneath the Earth’s permafrost. That’s more than 40 times as much CO2 as humans released into the atmosphere last year, and double the amount of the gas in the atmosphere today….This is one of the runaway warming scenarios, often called the “carbon bomb” or “methane bomb.”…These rapid changes in the Arctic might seem far away, but you will feel them too…the melting of the Arctic causes changes in the jet stream and disrupts weather patterns much further south. It’s been linked to worsening drought across the western United States, stalled hurricanes in the East, and the polar vortex that occasionally dips down over North America….”

This additional segment, immediately below, provides more detail on the dam design. You can also find this info in a comment below.

If you click to view the video of decades of ice loss, you may easily note the west-to-east flow of ice. This flow requires the ice to pass to the south of the Lomonosov Ridge, which is the diagonal ridge shown in the chart of the seabed shelves, running across the center of the Arctic. During the winter, the ice pushes through that pass and jams against the northwestern Greenland shore, until the summer melt breaks the jam. The broken jam then bursts over the shallow Rise that runs northeast from the shore at 30 degrees west and ends at about 10 degrees west, and the break can be seen to send an ice flow down the Fram Strait after the Fall Equinox. The goal of the Fram Dam is to augment that jam, by anchoring cables to the shallow Rise, beginning at the shore, so the jam builds north and west to block the pass south of the Lomonosov Ridge, resulting in rapid restoration of the Ice Cap to the Arctic shore of Alaska and complete restoration within about two years.

Go to September, 1989, in the ice flow vid, and you’ll see a natural ice dam has formed against the shallow shelf from ice pushing through the pass against the shore of Greenland, as described above. During the next 6–12 months, the ice is pushing through the narrow pass and builds that jam against the northwestern shore, until the ice-melt at the end of the following summer frees it all.

The Fram Dam would restore and augment that natural jam, directing the ice flow against the northwestern shore of Greenland, to prevent the ice from breaking free at the end of summer, as the jam builds westward to block the pass. In this way, the vast majority of ice loss down the Fram Strait would be blocked, to restore the Ice Cap and prevent the loss of the natural climate and ecosystems of the Anthropocene interglacial period, and thus allow the world time to reforest and restore the Earth, providing human and wild habitat to reverse the Anthropocene Extinction.

In contrast, if the world manages to decrease greenhouse emissions to begin to draw-down atmospheric carbon, which is only speculative, but does not dam the ice loss, a return to pre-industrial temperatures that permit ice to again build in the Arctic may be prevented by intermediate warming of the Arctic, soot from fires, and permafrost melt, amounting to the equivalent of more than a century of CO2 emissions over the next twenty years and possibly resulting in an irreversible collapse of civilization and most of life on Earth.

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