Trump's proposed tariffs would raise prices for these products, experts say / 7 ways a Trump administration could affect your finances / 트럼프 2기 내각은 에너지주, AI주 오를 것
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/trumps-proposed-tariffs-raise-prices-products-experts/story?id=115893557
President-elect Donald Trump has promised a major escalation of the nation’s tariffs.
Trump has proposed tariffs of between 60% and 100% on Chinese goods, and a tax of between 10% and 20% on every product imported from all U.S. trading partners.
Economists widely forecast that tariffs of this magnitude would increase prices paid by U.S. shoppers, since importers typically pass along a share of the cost of those higher taxes to consumers.
Trump's tariffs would cost the average U.S. household about $2,600 per year, according to an estimate from the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Some products would likely undergo much more significant price increases than others, experts told ABC News, pointing to items like electronics and toys that rely heavily on imports.
“This will directly impact people’s pocketbooks,” Rob Handfield, a professor of operations and supply-chain management at North Carolina State University, told ABC News.
In response to ABC News' request for comment, the Trump transition team rebuked concern about potential price increases as a result of his tariff proposals.
"In his first term, President Trump instituted tariffs against China that created jobs, spurred investment, and resulted in no inflation. President Trump will work quickly to fix and restore an economy that puts American workers by re-shoring American jobs, lowering inflation, raising real wages, lowering taxes, cutting regulations, and unshackling American energy," Karoline Leavitt, a spokesperson for the transition team, told ABC News in a statement.
Here’s what to know about which products will be most impacted by Trump’s tariffs:
Electronics
Smartphones, tablets and laptops are among the array of electronics that would see price increases as a result of tariffs, experts said. Video cameras, headphones and video game consoles would also be impacted.
“Electronics are basically ubiquitous,” Raymond Robertson, a professor of trade and public policy at Texas A&M University, told ABC News. “I don’t know how this wouldn’t be incredibly disruptive.”
Prices of laptops and tablets could rise as much as 46%, while smartphone prices could jump 26%, according to a study published last month by the Consumer Technology Association, a trade group that represents tech firms.
Many of those goods are imported from China, which would face the steepest tariffs under Trump’s proposal, Handfield said. Since Trump plans to also impose tariffs on all imported goods, manufacturers would not be able to circumvent the tariffs by shifting production to other countries, he added.
Imports account for roughly 90% of video and audio electronic equipment sold to U.S. consumers, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis found in 2017. Meanwhile, 88% of electronic computers and 78% of small electric appliances are imported, the BEA said.
“The prices of electronics would definitely go up,” Handfield said.
Clothes
Jeans, T-shirts, sweatshirts and a host of other apparel items are set to go up in price if Trump’s tariffs take effect, experts said.
The U.S. imports more than 80% of clothing items offered up by retailers, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data last year showed.
For decades, the U.S. has increasingly relied on apparel manufacturers in China, Bangladesh, Vietnam and other low-cost markets abroad, said Jason Miller, a professor of supply-chain management at Michigan State University.
“Obviously, and not surprisingly, apparel is very strongly imported,” Miller said.
The price of a set of 500 apparel goods ranging from swimwear to gloves to baby clothes could rise as much as 20% in response to the potential tariffs, according to a study earlier this month by the National Retail Federation, a trade association that represents retailers.
After the proposed tariffs, a $50 woman’s cotton sweater could cost consumers as much as $60 while the price of men’s jeans could rise from $80 to $96, the NRF found.
Toys
Dolls, stuffed animals and board games are among a group of toys highly vulnerable to tariff-related price increases, experts said.
Imports account for about 90% of toys and dolls sold to U.S. consumers, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data in 2017 showed.
Top U.S. toy makers are “very, very dependent on China,” Handfield said. “Almost all toys are manufactured in Asia.”
The price of toys could soar as much as 55%, amounting to about $14 billion in lost U.S. consumer spending power, the NRF found.
The price of a $50 tricycle could jump an additional $28, while a plush toy could climb from $17 to $27.
Economists face challenges forecasting the exact price increase since it remains unclear whether firms involved in the supply chain for products, such as toys, will take on a share of the added cost by relinquishing some profits or will pass along all of the cost to customers, Miller said.
The current body of academic research, however, suggests that many companies will add the full cost of tariffs onto the consumer.
“It is difficult to predict the exact price increase,” Miller said. “But it will be inflationary.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/16/business/financial-impact-trump-administration/index.html
President-elect Donald Trump promised Americans he’d bring down consumer prices, make health care more affordable and protect Social Security. Now he has to follow through.
Concerns about inflation and the cost of living were central to Trump’s victory in the US presidential election. According to CNN exit polls, 68% of voters said the economy was either poor or not good.
Much of the president’s ability to impact economic policy depends on approval from Congress. Nonetheless, when Trump is inaugurated on January 20, he will be on the hook to make good on his promises.
Here are seven ways a Trump administration could affect your personal finances.
Child care
On the campaign trail, Trump suggested expanding the child tax credit, which provides financial assistance to parents in the form of tax breaks. The policy platform linked on his website mentions expanding the child tax credit but does not include further details.
During Trump’s first term, the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act temporarily expanded the child tax credit from $1,000 to $2,000. That credit is set to expire at the end of 2025, but with approval from Congress, Trump could extend the 2017 tax cuts or introduce a new policy.
Vice President-elect JD Vance has suggested expanding the child tax credit to $5,000. Trump has not commented on the proposal.
Maria Castillo Dominguez, a certified financial planner and founder of Valoria Wealth Management, told CNN that extending the credit is “vital” for many households — particularly those with young children — to be able to manage child care costs.
Karoline Leavitt, a spokeswoman for the Trump-Vance transition, said in a statement that Trump will make good on his campaign promises.
“The American people re-elected President Trump by a resounding margin giving him a mandate to implement the promises he made on the campaign trail,” Leavitt said. “He will deliver.”
Taxes
The Trump administration is expected to focus on extending tax cuts introduced by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that are set to expire in 2025. The move will require approval from Congress.
Extending Trump’s 2017 tax cuts would lower taxes by an average of $2,000 in 2026, according to an analysis by the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. However, nearly half of the tax break benefits would go to the top 5% of households who make over $450,000.
For example, extending the tax cuts would save the top 1% of households about $70,000, or 3.2% of their income, according to the Tax Policy Center. By comparison, the tax cuts would save middle-income families about $1,000, or 1.3% of their income.
On the campaign trail, Trump touted ending double taxation on US citizens who live overseas but has not mentioned the topic much since. Additionally, he has not elaborated on his promise to make interest rates on auto loans tax-deductible.
Trump has suggested eliminating federal income tax entirely in favor of revenue from tariffs. Alan Auerbach, a professor of economics at UC Berkeley, told CNN that the proposal does not make financial sense. Revenue from tariffs is not enough to replace revenue from federal income tax, he said. “The numbers don’t work for this.”
Social Security
Trump promised not to “cut one penny” from Social Security, according to his policy platform.
But he has proposed eliminating federal taxes on Social Security, tips and overtime pay. Tax revenue is used to fund federal aid programs like Social Security.
Eliminating the taxes would provide short-term relief but deplete funds for Social Security, according to the Tax Policy Center, leading to reduced benefits for workers.
Households making $32,000 or less would not benefit from the federal tax cut because the majority of their Social Security income is not taxed, according to the Tax Policy Center.
Under Trump’s proposal, the fund reserves for Social Security would run dry by 2031, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Additionally, there would be a 33% decrease in benefits for enrollees by 2035.
Student loan debt
Key aspects of the Biden administration’s plan for student loan debt forgiveness hang in the balance, meaning the Trump administration could influence the outcome for millions of Americans who hope to have their debt canceled.
Efforts to forgive student loan debt — as attempted by the Biden administration — will likely be scrapped under Trump, according to Berkeley’s Auerbach.
As of August, some of President Joe Biden’s initiatives to relieve student loan debt remained blocked by a Supreme Court ruling.
“Republicans have been challenging those things in court, largely successfully, and I’m sure the sentiment in the Trump administration is going to be similar to that,” Auerbach said. “They’re not really that interested in providing student loan relief.”
Trump’s policy platform does not mention student loan debt. In his first term, he failed to end the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program.
Prices and inflation
Concerns about inflation helped send Trump back to the White House. Yet under his proposed policies, inflation could come roaring back.
Inflation ticked up to 2.6% in October, its first increase in six months, according to the Consumer Price Index. The bump up was in line with expectations, but it was also a signal that the beast of inflation is not entirely tamed.
Trump’s proposed 10% to 20% tariffs on imports would lead to an increase in everyday consumer prices, according to a report by the National Retail Federation. For example, $90 athletic shoes could cost $106 to $116 under Trump’s tariffs.
Additionally, Trump’s proposal for mass deportations could increase food prices. Auerbach noted that undocumented immigrants often work in agriculture or food processing, portending for a labor shortage if they are deported.
Auerbach told CNN that the president-elect’s plans for tariffs and mass deportations could have the most significant impact on peoples’ finances.
“If those things actually come into effect as proposed, there are going to be big increases in the cost of living,” he said.
Health insurance
On the campaign trail, Trump went back and forth on his approach to changing the Affordable Care Act. He has said he has “concepts of a plan” for health care.
The Trump administration wants to “promote choice and competition” and make health care more affordable, according to his policy platform. Yet it does not provide further details.
Americans enrolled in the ACA marketplace will likely see increases in health care costs after a key tax credit from the pandemic expires at the end of 2025.
As part of the 2021 American Rescue Plan Act, enhanced premium tax credits were introduced to decrease out-of-pocket costs for eligible ACA enrollees. These tax credits were expanded through 2025 as part of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act.
A Republican-led Congress is likely to let the enhanced personal tax credits expire, according to KFF, a nonprofit health policy group. The credits save enrollees about $700 a year, according to KFF, and if they expire, about 19.7 million Americans will see spikes in health care expenses.
“Forthcoming policy proposals are likely to raise people’s costs for health coverage, roll back protections for people with pre-existing conditions and increase the number of people without coverage,” said Sarah Lueck, a vice president at the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, a think tank.
Regarding Medicare, Trump will not “cut one penny” from the program, according to his policy platform.
“I think, at least in the short run, I don’t expect any major cuts in Medicare benefits,” Auerbach said, noting that Trump recognizes it’s a popular program.
Housing
Trump’s policy platform says his administration will promote homeownership “through tax incentives and support for first-time buyers.” It also mentions opening “limited portions” of lands owned by the federal government for “new home construction.” Trump has not elaborated on his platform.
The Trump administration will likely cut red tape to encourage business and real estate developments. Housing costs are often most impacted by local regulations instead of national policy, said Berkeley’s Auerbach.
Trump’s plan for mass deportations could shrink the labor force in the construction sector, putting strain on an already tight supply of housing and in turn causing higher prices, Auerbach said.
As for mortgages, more affordable rates could stem from the Federal Reserve’s decisions on where to set interest rates, Auerbach said. The Fed’s benchmark interest rate sets the cost of borrowing between banks and influences the interest rates paid by consumers on loans, credit cards and mortgages.
https://www.hankookilbo.com/News/Read/A2024111313200005122
트럼프 2기 청사진 '어젠다47'
트럼프 전 대통령의 대선 후보 공약집인 ‘어젠다47’(Agenda47)도 트럼프 2기의 미래 청사진인 만큼 꼼꼼하게 살펴볼 필요가 있다. 어젠다47에서 트럼프는 바이든 정부의 친환경 정책이 결국 에너지 가격 상승을 불러 전반적인 인플레이션을 야기함으로써 미국의 경쟁력을 떨어뜨렸다고 비판했다. 트럼프는 화석연료 채굴 및 공급 확대를 통해 에너지 가격을 하락시켜 물가를 잡고 미국을 다시 세계 최대 제조업 강국으로 만들겠다는 각오다. 석유 증산을 장려하겠다며 선거 구호로 ‘드릴 베이비 드릴’(Drill, Baby, Drill)을 썼을 정도다. 공화당의 20대 공약에도 미국을 세계 최대 에너지 생산국으로 만들겠다는 내용이 있다. 미국의 원유 생산이 늘면 국제 유가도 하향 안정될 가능성이 높다. 한국 경제엔 우호적 환경이다. 법무법인 율촌은 ‘트럼프 행정부 2기의 정책과 국내 통상 산업 영향’ 보고서에서 국내 정유와 석유화학 업계에도 기회가 될 것으로 전망했다. 또 석유 가스 시추 및 인프라 관련 기계 장비와 화력 발전 가스터빈 수출 등이 늘어날 수 있다고 예상했다.
트럼프 당선자는 전력 가격 인하와 인공지능(AI) 투자 확대를 위해 원자력 발전도 확대하겠다는 입장이다. 여기엔 공화당뿐 아니라 민주당도 지지하고 있다. 원전 건설과 운영에서 세계적인 경쟁력과 노하우를 가진 한국엔 호재다.
일론 머스크 스페이스X 최고경영자가 지난달 미 뉴욕에서 열린 도널드 트럼프 공화당 대선 후보 유세장에서 지지 연설을 하고 있다. 뉴욕=로이터 연합뉴스
물론 이러한 트럼프 2기의 화석 연료 회귀 정책은 상대적으로 전기차와 2차전지 배터리 산업엔 먹구름을 드리울 수 있다. 그러나 트럼프를 지지한 일론 머스크의 우주 기업 스페이스X에 LG에너지솔루션의 배터리가 납품될 것으로 알려지며 시장이 들썩였다. 트럼프 시대라고 배터리 업종에 반드시 악재만 있으란 법은 없다. 트럼프는 기본적으로 친기업 성향이고, ‘경제는 생물’이라 상황은 언제든 바뀔 수 있다.
인플레이션감축법(IRA)도 트럼프는 철폐 내지 축소하겠다고 밝혔지만 IRA의 혜택을 받는 지역이 대부분 미 남동부의 공화당 우세 지역이고 공화당 의원들과 친트럼프 대형 석유 회사들도 IRA를 지지하고 있다. 지레 겁 먹고 보조금을 포기하긴 이르다.
트럼프는 장사꾼이라 공약이 전부 진실을 말한거라 말하면 안돼.
앞뒤 상반된 공약 많아
...
강달러는 관세정책과 상충
저달러를 원하는 트럼프
강한 제조업 /제조업 수출을 위해서도.
따라서 FED의 금리인하 선호.
금리인상은 미정부의 부채지불에도 부담.
안 그래도 대규모 감세 정책으로 세수확보 어려워서.
Comments
Post a Comment